Safe-Haven Demand Lifts Gold, Oil Retreats on Easing Middle East Tensions and OPEC+ Output Increase;

On August 3, commodity markets showed mixed performance. After the United States announced it would hold off on further military action against Iran and pursue diplomatic efforts to ease regional tensions, concerns over a broader Middle East conflict eased. As a result, international crude oil prices fell sharply, with much of the geopolitical risk premium accumulated in recent weeks being priced out of the market.

Meanwhile, OPEC+ confirmed that it will increase its oil production target by approximately 188,000 barrels per day starting in September, completing the gradual reversal of its previous voluntary production cuts. Although some analysts believe transportation and export constraints may limit the immediate impact of additional supply, the production increase has reinforced expectations of higher global oil supply, placing further pressure on crude prices

In the precious metals market, gold edged higher as a weaker U.S. dollar and renewed safe-haven demand supported prices. Investors are now closely watching this week's U.S. JOLTS Job Openings Report, ADP Employment Report, and Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) for further clues on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook. A weaker-than-expected labor market could strengthen expectations for future interest rate cuts and provide additional support for gold. Conversely, stronger employment data could boost the U.S. dollar and limit gold's upside potential.

Industrial metals, including copper, continued to trade within a relatively narrow range. Investors remain focused on China's manufacturing recovery, global infrastructure investment, and long-term demand driven by artificial intelligence (AI), renewable energy, electric vehicles, and power grid expansion. Until stronger macroeconomic catalysts emerge, industrial metals are expected to remain range-bound.

Overall, commodity markets are gradually shifting from geopolitical-driven trading toward macroeconomic fundamentals and monetary policy expectations. In the coming days, U.S. employment data, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), OPEC+ production policy, and developments in the Middle East will remain the key factors influencing the direction of gold, crude oil, and industrial metals.