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Abstract:The US dollar is on the backfoot after last night‘s dovish FOMC pulled the rug from under the greenback. Coming up, the Bank of England’s latest policy decision will be confined by ongoing Brexit chaos.
Market Themes and Movers – FOMC, BoE Decision, Euro, JPY and NOK in Favour
USD: Wednesdays FOMC meeting revealed a dovish US central bank with further interest rate hikes in 2019 now looking very unlikely. The Fed hinted at a 0.25% hike in 2020 but markets are now pricing-in a cut in rates in 2020 as growth concerns continue. The central bank also reigned in its bond normalization program with sales expected to stop by the end of September, three months earlier than had been expected by some market commentators. US Treasury yields fell to multi-month lows, dragging the US dollar down.
GBP: The Bank of England is fully expected to leave all monetary policy settings unchangedat today‘s MPC meeting as Brexit continues to cloud the UK’s economic outlook. Recent jobs, wages and retail sales data has beaten market expectations and highlights a growing divergence between robust employment and weak economic growth. The Bank of England will need to tread carefully once/if Brexit is resolved.
EUR/JPY/NOK: Both the Euro and the Japanese Yen reacted positively to the outcome of the FOMC meeting and pushed ahead against the US dollar. While gains may be limited in the short-term, both may continue to find favour going forward and press through recent resistance levels. The Norges Bank raised interest rates by 0.25% to 1.0% today, as expected, and signalled another hike in H2 this year, boosting the value of the Norwegian Krone further.
Chart of the Day – Multi-Month Low 10-Yr US Treasury Yield
DailyFX Economic Calendar: For updated and timely economic releases.
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Market Movers with Updated News and Analysis:
S&P Backing into Support, Dow Jones and Nasdaq 100 Chart Outlook.
EURUSD Price Hitting Resistance But Sentiment Remains Bullish.
Yen May Rise as Dovish SNB, BoE Add to Global Slowdown Fears.
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US Dollar Dives After March FOMC Meeting Reveals Dovish Fed.
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Gold Price Forecast Brightens Amid Drop in US Treasury Yields.
--- Written by Nick Cawley, Market Analyst
To contact Nick, email him at Nicholas.Cawley@ig.com
Follow Nick on Twitter @nickcawley1
Disclaimer:
The views in this article only represent the author's personal views, and do not constitute investment advice on this platform. This platform does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness and timeliness of the information in the article, and will not be liable for any loss caused by the use of or reliance on the information in the article.
USD/JPY (USD/JPY), an increase is expected as the Bank of Japan may reduce bond purchases and lay the groundwork for future rate hikes. Technical indicators show an ongoing uptrend with resistance around 157.8 to 160.
A Rat Race to the bottom in the rescue of the Dollar
Analysis for the week ahead: Markets remain worried by global recession fears
EUR/USD continues to tumble, with no sign yet of a rally or even a near-term bounce.. The pair has dropped already beneath the support line of a downward-sloping channel in place since late May this year to its lowest level since July 2020 and there is now little support between here and 1.1170. From a fundamental perspective, the Euro is suffering from a continued insistence by the European Central Bank that much higher Eurozone interest rates are not needed.