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Abstract:Risk was back on with a vengeance Monday morning with growth linked currencies gaining on news that a feared step-up in the US/China trade spat
Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar, Japanese Yen, US Tariff Hike Delay Talking Points:
‘Risk currencies’ got a lift on some upbeat trade Tweeting from the US President
The feared US tariff hike penciled in for March 31 seems to have been eliminated
Donald Trump said that progress had been made and offered the prospect of a summit
First-quarter technical and fundamental forecasts from the DailyFX analysts are out now.
The Australian and New Zealand Dollars made early gains Monday, while the haven Japanese Yen lost ground on news of apparent progress in trade talks between China and the US.
US President Donald Trump said via his Twitter feed that he would be delaying the tariff increase initially planned for March 31 thanks to ‘very productive’ trade talks between the two countries. According to wire reports he also said that a summit with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping could be on the cards if more progress is made. There have been positive steps on intellectual property, technology, agriculture and currency policy, the US President said.
With so many global economic indicators looking patchy at best, a trade fillip from this direction couldnt be better timed. Trade snarl-ups rippling out from the US/China impasse have hit countries well beyond the two main players.
Growth sensitive currencies got a clear immediate boost, with perceived havens such as the Japanese Yen put under pressure.
AUD/USD provides a good example of the general trend, gapping higher on the news.
Markets will now await further details, with trade headlines likely to retain the ability to override all other concerns as this weeks trading progresses.
Disclaimer:
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JPY strengthened against the USD, pushing USD/JPY near 145.00, driven by strong inflation data and BoJ rate hike expectations. Japan's strong Q2 GDP growth added support. However, USD gains may be limited by expectations of a Fed rate cut in September.
Gold prices remain above $2,500, near record highs, as investors await the Federal Open Market Committee minutes for confirmation of a potential Fed rate cut in September. The Fed's dovish shift, prioritizing employment over inflation, has weakened the US Dollar, boosting gold. A recent revision showing the US created 818,000 fewer jobs than initially reported also strengthens the case for a rate cut.
USD/JPY holds near 145.50, recovering from 144.95 lows. The Yen strengthens on strong GDP, boosting rate hike expectations for the Bank of Japan. However, gains may be limited by potential US Fed rate cuts in September.
Gold prices remain near record highs, driven by expectations of a US interest rate cut and a weakening US Dollar. Investors are focusing on the upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium, where Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech will be closely watched for clues on the Fed's stance. Additionally, the release of US manufacturing data (PMIs) is expected to influence gold's direction.