Poland: Growth supported by investment rebound – ING

ING‘s Adam Antoniak expects Poland’s 2Q26 GDP flash estimate to be confirmed at 3.8% year-on-year, with fixed investment rebounding strongly thanks to EU and RRF-funded projects. Private consumption is seen slowing slightly as higher fuel prices and weaker wage growth weigh on purchasing power. August CPI is projected at 3.1% with core inflation stable at 3.1%.

Investment-led expansion offsets softer consumption

“We expect the flash estimate of Polands 2Q26 GDP to be confirmed at 3.8% YoY on 31 August. Statistics Poland will also publish a composition of economic growth. We estimate that private consumption growth eased to 3.0% YoY from 3.3% YoY in 1Q26 as higher fuel prices and further slowdown in wage growth put pressure on purchasing power.”

“At the same time, fixed investment growth increased to 8.5% YoY from a disappointing 2.4% YoY in the previous quarter. Projects financed by the EU funds (including RRF) accelerated, and data on investment outlays of large companies in 1H26 point to strong investment activity in 2Q26.”

“Monday also brings August CPI inflation, which probably inched up to 3.1% YoY from 3.0% YoY in July. We estimate that core inflation remained unchanged at 3.1% YoY and the slightly higher contribution from fuel prices to annual CPI was probably almost fully cancelled out by the negative impact of food deflation that likely deepened.”