US–Iran Talks Stall, Memory Selloff Triggers Sharp Decline in Chip Stocks

Market Overview

Global markets re-entered an “extreme volatility” regime yesterday, as stalled ceasefire negotiations between the U.S. and Iran reignited safe-haven demand. Crude oil prices surged more than 4% at one point, triggering a broad-based selloff across equities, Treasuries, gold, and Bitcoin.

The S&P 500 fell 1.7%, while the Nasdaq plunged over 2%, dragged lower by a nearly 5% rout in semiconductor stocks. Notably, memory giant SanDisk extended its losses, tumbling 11%. Meanwhile, Meta Platforms dropped more than 8% after being held liable in a social media addiction lawsuit.

Precious Metals & Commodities

Safe-haven assets experienced disorderly liquidation under tightening liquidity conditions. Spot gold briefly flash-crashed to around $4,350, with silver also posting sharp losses.

However, sentiment shifted in after-hours trading after Donald Trump announced a 10-day delay in planned strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure. The news triggered a sharp pullback in oil prices, with WTI falling from $94 to below $90, helping gold recover and narrow losses, rebounding above $4,415.

Cryptocurrencies & Technology

Risk assets broadly retreated. Bitcoin fell below the $69,000 level, down more than 4%, while Ethereum underperformed with a nearly 6% decline.

Within the tech sector, in addition to Metas legal setback, semiconductor design and manufacturing names were pressured by a collapse in memory sector valuations, leaving overall market sentiment highly fragile.

Fixed Income & FX

The Treasury market faced another weak auction cycle. A poorly received 7-year Treasury auction pushed yields higher across the curve, with the 2-year yield rising by 10 basis points.

The U.S. Dollar Index initially surged by 0.35% during early trading but reversed all gains by the New York close, as geopolitical developments introduced fresh uncertainty.

Key Themes Ahead● Scrutiny on Private Credit

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has recently questioned whether credit rating agency Egan-Jones can “consistently issue ratings with integrity.”

This is not a routine inquiry, but rather a direct challenge to the reliability of core mechanisms within the private credit market. As redemption gates tighten and asset valuations come under scrutiny, accountability disputes among market participants are accelerating.

● Japan May Intervene by Shorting Oil Futures

With the yen under mounting pressure, Tokyo is reportedly considering an unconventional strategy: deploying part of its $1.4 trillion FX reserves to short crude oil futures.

The objective would be to break the feedback loop of “higher oil prices → stronger USD demand → weaker yen.” However, sources indicate that there is no internal consensus, and even if implemented, the impact is expected to be temporary.

Key Data to Watch (GMT+8)

22:00 (ET)University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Final, March)

1-Year Inflation Expectations (Final, March)