Gold Market Analysis: Strategic 'Whales' Target $5,400 Despite Tactical Pullback

Gold prices have entered a phase of consolidation near $4,820, retracing from recent record highs as immediate geopolitical risk premiums evaporate. However, major institutional analysis suggests the structural bull market has fundamentally shifted gears, with Goldman Sachs hiking its price target to $5,400/oz driven by a new class of private sector buyers.

The 'Sticky Hedge' Phenomenon

While Central Bank accumulation—particularly from emerging markets—remains a pillar of demand (contributing an estimated 14% to the rally), a new dynamic has emerged. Goldman Sachs analysts identify the entry of high-net-worth families and private institutions using gold not just for speculation, but as a “strategic hedge” against fiscal sustainability fears and currency debasement.

• High Retention: Unlike the “Trump Trade” hedges of 2024 that were quickly unwound, these positions are characterized as “sticky.” Buyers are hedging against long-term sovereign debt risks rather than transient election outcomes.
• Beta Expansion: As call option volumes increase, dealer hedging requirements are mechanically amplifying price moves, raising gold's sensitivity (beta) to buying flows from 1.7% to nearly 2%.

Short-Term Headwinds: The Risk-On Pivot

Despite the bullish long-term thesis, the metal faced immediate selling pressure during Thursday's Asian session, dipping nearly 1% to $4,772 before finding support. The catalyst was a sharp reversal in risk sentiment after President Trump withdrew tariff threats against European nations and signaled a diplomatic resolution to the Greenland dispute via a NATO framework.

This “risk-on” shift triggered a rotation out of safe havens into equities, temporarily capping gold's upside.

Technical Outlook

• Key Support: The 100-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,711 and the 38.2%Fibonacci retracement level at $4,754.
• Momentum: MACD histograms are contracting, indicating bearish momentum is fading, while RSI has reset to neutral territory (approx. 46), allowing room for the next directional move.

Unless Fed policy tightens unexpectedly or Central Bank buying collapses back to pre-2022 levels (below 17 tonnes/month), analysts view the current dip as a correction within a super-cycle.