Euro nears nine-month peak as ECB hawks let fly

SYDNEY (Reuters) – The dollar was staring at a fourth straight session of losses against the euro on Monday as more hawkish comments on European interest rates contrasted with market pricing for a less aggressive Federal Reserve.

悉尼（路透社）——美元兑欧元周一连续第四个交易日下跌，因为对欧洲利率的更多鹰派评论与市场对美联储不那么激进的定价形成鲜明对比。

The euro crept ahead to $1.0870 and nearer its recent nine-month peak of $1.08875. A break there would open the way to a spike top from last April at $1.0936.

欧元兑美元攀升至 1.0870 美元并接近其最近的九个月高点 1.08875 美元。突破该位置将为自去年 4 月以来的尖峰顶部 1.0936 美元开辟道路。

It was aided by European Central Bank (ECB) governing council member Klaas Knot, who said interest rates would rise by 50 basis points in both February and March and continue climbing in the months after.

它得到了欧洲中央银行 (ecb) 管理委员会成员 klaas knot 的帮助，他表示利率将在 2 月和 3 月上升 50 个基点，并在之后的几个月继续攀升。

Knot is considered a hawk among policy makers and the comment was taken as push back against recent reports that the ECB would scale back to quarter-point moves from March.

诺特在政策制定者中被认为是鹰派人士，这一评论被认为是对最近有关欧洲央行将从 3 月起缩减至 25 个基点变动的报道的反击。

In contrast, futures have priced out almost any chance the Fed could move by 50 basis points next month and have steadily lowered the likely peak for rates to 4.75% to 5.0%, from the current 4.25% to 4.50%.

相比之下，期货价格几乎排除了美联储下个月加息 50 个基点的任何可能性，并将利率的可能峰值从目前的 4.25% 稳步降至 4.75% 至 4.50%。

Investors also have around 50 basis points of U.S. rate cuts priced in for the second half of the year, reflecting softer data on inflation, consumer spending and housing.

投资者还预计美国下半年将降息约 50 个基点，反映出通胀、消费者支出和住房数据疲软。

Flash surveys on January manufacturing due this week are forecast to show more improvement in Europe, in part thanks to falling energy costs, than in the United States.

预计本周将对 1 月份制造业进行的快速调查显示，欧洲的改善程度要高于美国，部分原因是能源成本下降。

“The U.S. has lost its global growth leadership position if most recent PMI surveys are to be believed,” said Ray Attrill, head of FX strategy at NAB. “Meanwhile, gas prices have fallen by 60% since early December, sharply reducing the negative terms of trade shock weighing on the Eurozone/EUR.”

nab 外汇策略主管 ray attrill 表示：“如果最近的 pmi 调查可信的话，美国已经失去了其全球增长领导地位。” “与此同时，天然气价格自 12 月初以来下跌了 60%，大大减轻了贸易冲击对欧元区/欧元的负面影响。”

“Additionally, U.S. inflation is seen falling further and faster than the Feds own projections,” he added. “Under this scenario, the USD has scope to fall much further this year.”

他补充说：“此外，美国通胀下降的速度比美联储自己的预测还要快。” “在这种情况下，美元今年还有进一步下跌的空间。”

Attrill now sees the euro reaching $1.1000 by March and $1.1700 by year end.

attrill 现在认为欧元到 3 月将达到 1.1000 美元，到年底将达到 1.1700 美元。

Much the same argument goes for sterling, with markets wagering the Bank of England will hike by half a point to 4.0% at its policy meeting next week.

英镑的论点大致相同，市场押注英国央行将在下周的政策会议上加息 0.5 个基点至 4.0%。

The pound was up at $1.2410 and within striking distance of last weeks top of $1.2435.

英镑上涨至 1.2410 美元，距离上周高位 1.2435 美元仅咫尺之遥。

The dollar was thus a shade weaker against a basket of currencies at 101.890 and just a whisker for its recent eight-month trough of 101.510.

因此，美元兑一篮子货币走弱至 101.890，距离最近的八个月低点 101.510 仅一步之遥。

The dollar has at least managed to steady on the yen after the Bank of Japan (BOJ) defied market pressure to reverse its ultra-easy bond control policy.

在日本银行 (boj) 不顾市场压力扭转其超宽松债券控制政策后，美元兑日元至少得以稳定。

Analysts assume the BOJ will stand the line until at least the next policy meeting in March, though one hurdle will be the expected naming of a new BOJ governor in February.

分析师认为，日本央行至少会坚持到 3 月份的下一次政策会议，不过一个障碍将是预计 2 月份任命新的日本央行行长。

Any hint the replacement is less dovish than current governor Haruhiko Kuroda could see the yen climb anew.

任何暗示继任者不如现任行长黑田东彦鸽派的迹象都可能导致日元再次攀升。

For now, the dollar was holding at 129.40 yen, following last weeks wild gyrations between 127.22 and 131.58.

继上周在 127.22 和 131.58 之间剧烈波动之后，目前美元兑日元持于 129.40。

The focus on interest rates will make the Bank of Canadas meeting on Wednesday of some note, with markets leaning toward another quarter-point hike to 4.5%, but that to be the end of the tightening cycle there.

对利率的关注将使加拿大央行在周三的会议上有所作为，市场倾向于再次加息 25 个基点至 4.5%，但这将是加拿大紧缩周期的结束。

The Canadian currency was a touch firmer at $1.3374 per U.S. dollar, having bounced from $1.3497 on Friday when local data on retail sales proved a lot less weak than expected.

加元兑美元小幅走强至 1.3374 美元，周五当地零售销售数据远低于预期时从 1.3497 美元反弹。