European Central Bank to raise deposit rate to 3.25% by mid-year: Reuters poll

LONDON (Reuters) – The European Central Bank will be more aggressive than previously thought in its tightening campaign, adding another 50 basis points to its deposit rate on Feb. 2, as it continues its battle against rampant inflation, a Reuters poll found.

伦敦（路透社）——一项路透调查显示，欧洲央行将在其紧缩行动中比之前想象的更为积极，2 月 2 日将其存款利率再提高 50 个基点，以继续与猖獗的通货膨胀作斗争。

Although the euro zones central bank has been raising rates at its fastest pace on record it has so far failed to bring inflation anywhere near its 2% target. Prices rose 9.2% in December on a year earlier, official data showed last week.

尽管欧元区央行一直以有记录以来最快的速度加息，但迄今为止未能使通胀率接近 2% 的目标。上周官方数据显示，12 月份物价同比上涨 9.2%。

ECB President Christine Lagarde and her Governing Council will take the deposit rate to 2.50% on Feb. 2, said 55 of 59 economists in the Jan. 13-20 poll. They are likely to follow that up with another 50 basis point lift in March.

在 1 月 13 日至 20 日的调查中，59 位经济学家中有 55 位表示，欧洲央行行长克里斯蒂娜拉加德及其管理委员会将于 2 月 2 日将存款利率提高至 2.50%。他们可能会在 3 月份再次加息 50 个基点。

The central bank will then add 25 basis points next quarter before pausing, giving a terminal rate in the current cycle of 3.25%, its highest since late 2008. In Decembers poll, the rate was put at 2.50% at end-March and was seen topping out at 2.75%. (Graphic: Reuters Poll – ECB deposit rate outlook, https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/polling/movakjzjyva/Reuters%20Poll%20-%20ECB%20deposit%20rate%20outlook.png)

央行随后将在下个季度加息 25 个基点，然后暂停，当前周期的最终利率为 3.25%，为 2008 年底以来的最高水平。在 12 月的民意调查中，该利率在 3 月底被定为 2.50%，并被视为最高为 2.75%。 （图：路透调查——欧洲央行存款利率展望，https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/polling/movakjzjyva/reuters%20poll%20-%20ecb%20deposit%20rate%20outlook.png）

Asked how the risks were skewed to their terminal deposit rate forecasts, over two-thirds of respondents, 23 of 33, said it was more likely it ends higher rather than lower than they currently expect.

当被问及风险如何偏向他们的最终存款利率预测时，超过三分之二的受访者（33 人中的 23 人）表示，最终存款利率更有可能高于而不是低于他们目前的预期。

“The risk is they will actually be as aggressive as they have claimed. Lagarde and others have said they are in for the long haul where we are going to raise rates meeting by meeting in 2023,” said Silke Tober at the Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK).

“风险在于他们实际上会像他们声称的那样咄咄逼人。拉加德和其他人已经表示，他们将在 2023 年开会前加息，”宏观经济政策研究所 (imk) 的 silke tober 表示。

“Its a very clear risk but I happen to think it would be a mistake.”

“这是一个非常明显的风险，但我碰巧认为这将是一个错误。”

The refinancing rate was expected to rise 50 basis points to 3.00% next week and reach a peak of 3.50% in March.

预计下周再融资利率将上调50个基点至3.00%，并在3月份达到3.50%的峰值。

The U.S. Federal Reserve, which began raising rates many months before the ECB, is forecast to end its tightening cycle after a 25 basis point hike at each of its next two policy meetings. It is then expected to hold rates steady for at least the rest of the year, according to a recent Reuters poll.

比欧洲央行早几个月开始加息的美联储预计将在接下来的两次政策会议上每次加息 25 个基点后结束其紧缩周期。根据路透社最近的一项民意调查，预计至少在今年剩余时间里利率将保持稳定。

Growth upgrade

成长升级

Inflation has already peaked in the 20-nation EU, the poll found, and will drift down, but was not seen at the ECBs target until at least 2025. Inflation will average 6.0% this year and 2.5% next but will be 2.0% across 2025.

民意调查发现，欧盟 20 国的通胀率已经见顶，并将逐渐下降，但至少要到 2025 年才会达到欧洲央行的目标。今年的平均通胀率为 6.0%，明年为 2.5%，但总体为 2.0% 2025.

A mild winter so far, falling gas prices and recent positive economic data meant some quarterly growth forecasts were upgraded in the latest poll from a December survey.

到目前为止，一个温和的冬天、天然气价格下跌和近期积极的经济数据意味着在 12 月调查的最新民意调查中上调了一些季度增长预测。

Although a technical recession was still predicted – with a 0.2% contraction last quarter and 0.3% in the current one – the economy was now expected to grow 0.1% next quarter rather than flatline. It is forecast to expand 0.3% in the following two quarters, unchanged medians showed.

尽管仍预计会出现技术性衰退——上一季度收缩 0.2%，本季度收缩 0.3%——但现在预计下一季度经济将增长 0.1%，而不是持平。中值显示，预计未来两个季度将增长 0.3%。

All but one of the 36 economists who responded to another question said the blocs downturn was more likely to be shallower than they expect rather than deeper.

在回答另一个问题的 36 位经济学家中，除了一位以外，其他人都表示，欧元区经济衰退的程度可能比他们预期的要浅，而不是比预期的要深。

“Not only has the risk of severe, energy-driven recessions diminished markedly but the direction of travel of leading indicators, including our PMI data, signals a rising likelihood of an earlier pick-up in growth than expected,” said Ken Wattret at S&P Global.

标准普尔的 ken wattret 表示：“不仅由能源驱动的严重衰退的风险显着降低，而且包括我们的 pmi 数据在内的领先指标的行进方向表明，经济增长提早提速的可能性越来越大。”全球的。

Across this year growth was pegged at 0.1%, a turnaround from the 0.1% contraction forecast last month. In 2024 it was expected to grow 1.3%, unchanged from Decembers prediction.

今年全年的增长率固定在 0.1%，与上个月 0.1% 的收缩预测相比出现了逆转。预计 2024 年将增长 1.3%，与 12 月的预测持平。

(For other stories from the Reuters global long-term economic outlook polls package:)

（有关路透社全球长期经济前景民意调查的其他报道：）

(Reporting by Jonathan Cable; polling by Aditi Verma, Sujith Pai and Sarupya Ganguly; editing by Jonathan Oatis)

（jonathan cable 报道；aditi verma、sujith pai 和 sarupya ganguly 投票；jonathan oatis 编辑）