Daily Forex Analysis - 18 February 2021

USD Overview (18 February 2021)

Yesterday, USD strengthened against most major currencies except AUD and JPY.

The retail sales m/m data released yesterday indicated a sharp rise in consumer spending as consumers utilized their received $600 stimulus checks.

- Core Retail Sales m/m (Actual: 5.9%, Forecast: 1.1%, Previous: -1.8% revised from -1.4%)

- Retail Sales m/m (Actual: 5.3%, Forecast: 1.1%, Previous: -1.0% revised from -0.7%)

In the released minutes for the previous monetary policy meeting, the Federal Reserve highlighted that the U.S. economic conditions are currently far from the central banks long-term goal, implying that monetary policy is unlikely going to change anytime soon.

The U.S. housing data will be released later at 2130 (SGT).

- Building Permits (Forecast: 1.67M, Previous: 1.70M revised from 1.71M)

- Housing Starts (Forecast: 1.66M, Previous: 1.67M)

NZD/USD Outlook (18 February 2021)

Overall, NZD/USD is ranging across. Recently, NZD/USD broke below the key level of 0.72.

Currently, NZD/USD is bouncing down from the key level of 0.72. Its next support zone is at 0.71000 and the next resistance zone is at 0.72850.

Look for selling opportunities of NZD/USD.

AUD/USD Outlook (18 February 2021)

Overall, AUD/USD is ranging across.

The Australian employment data released earlier today indicated a slowdown in jobs growth in January while unemployment rate improved slightly more than expected.

- Employment Change (Actual: 29.1K, Forecast: 30.2K, Previous: 50.0K)

- Unemployment Rate (Actual: 6.4%, Forecast: 6.5%, Previous: 6.6%)

The Australian flash PMI data will be released tomorrow at 0600 (SGT).

- Flash Manufacturing PMI (Forecast: NA, Previous: 57.2)

- Flash Services PMI (Forecast: NA, Previous: 55.6 revised from 55.8)

Also, the Australian retail sales m/m data (Forecast: 2.1%, Previous: -4.1%) will be released tomorrow at 0830 (SGT).

AUD/USDs next support zone is at 0.76000 and the next resistance zone is at 0.77900.

Look for selling opportunities of AUD/USD.

USD/JPY Outlook (18 February 2021)

Overall, USD/JPY is trending upwards.

The Japanese flash manufacturing PMI data (Forecast: 50.0, Previous: 49.8 revised from 49.7) will be released tomorrow at 0830 (SGT).

Currently, USD/JPY is testing the resistance zone of 105.800 and the next support zone is at 104.600.

Look for buying opportunities of USD/JPY if it breaks the resistance zone of 105.800.

EUR/USD Outlook (18 February 2021)

Overall, EUR/USD is ranging across. Recently, EUR/USD broke the support zone of 1.20750.

The European Central Bank will be releasing the minutes for the previous monetary policy meeting later at 2030 (SGT).

EUR/USDs next support zone is at 1.18800 and the next resistance zone is at 1.20750.

Look for selling opportunities of EUR/USD.

GBP/USD Outlook (18 February 2021)

Overall, GBP/USD is trending upwards. Recently, GBP/USD bounced down from the key level of 1.39.

The UK CPI y/y data released yesterday indicated a slightly higher than forecasted increase in the rate of inflation.

- CPI y/y (Actual: 0.7%, Forecast: 0.6%, Previous: 0.6%)

- Core CPI y/y (Actual: 1.4%, Forecast: 1.3%, Previous: 1.4%)

GBP/USDs next support zone is at 1.37800 and the next resistance zone is at 1.40000.

Look for short-term selling opportunities of GBP/USD.

USD/CAD Outlook (18 February 2021)

Overall, USD/CAD is ranging across.

The Canadian CPI m/m data (Actual: 0.6%, Forecast: 0.5%, Previous: -0.2%) released yesterday indicated a higher than forecasted rate of increase of inflation in January.

Currently, USD/CAD is testing to break above the key level of 1.27. Its next support zone is at 1.26100 and the next resistance zone is at 1.28500.

Look for buying opportunities of USD/CAD if it breaks above the key level of 1.27.

GBP/JPY Outlook (18 February 2021)

Overall, GBP/JPY is trending upwards. Recently, GBP/JPY broke below the key level of 147.

The UK CPI y/y data released yesterday indicated a slightly higher than forecasted increase in the rate of inflation.

- CPI y/y (Actual: 0.7%, Forecast: 0.6%, Previous: 0.6%)

- Core CPI y/y (Actual: 1.4%, Forecast: 1.3%, Previous: 1.4%)

The Japanese flash manufacturing PMI data (Forecast: 50.0, Previous: 49.8 revised from 49.7) will be released tomorrow at 0830 (SGT).

GBP/JPYs next support zone is at 146.000 and the next resistance zone is at 147.800.

Look for short-term selling opportunities of GBP/JPY.

EUR/JPY Outlook (18 February 2021)

Overall, EUR/JPY is trending upwards. Recently, EUR/JPY broke below the key level of 128.

The Japanese flash manufacturing PMI data (Forecast: 50.0, Previous: 49.8 revised from 49.7) will be released tomorrow at 0830 (SGT).

The European Central Bank will be releasing the minutes for the previous monetary policy meeting later at 2030 (SGT).

Currently, EUR/JPY is moving towards the support zone of 127.150 and the next resistance zone is at 129.500.

Look for short-term selling opportunities of EUR/JPY if it breaks the support zone of 127.150.