EURUSD Price Outlook: Primed for ECB, FOMC & Brexit Triple-Header

EURUSD Price, Chart and Analysis:

欧元兑美元价格，图表和分析：

• ECB meeting will leave all monetary policy levers untouched.

  欧洲央行会议将保持所有货币政策杠杆不受影响。

• FOMC minutes and Brexit discussions later in the day.

  FOMC会议纪要和当天晚些时候的英国脱欧讨论。

Q2 2019 EUR Forecast and USD Top Trading Opportunities

Q2 2019 EUR预测及USD顶贸易机会

ECB Policy, FOMC Minutes, EU Brexit Summit

ECB政策，FOMC分钟，EU Brexit峰会

ECB President Mario Draghi will leave monetary policy unchanged again today but his commentary at the subsequent press conference needs to closely followed. At the last meeting President Draghi downgraded EU growth prospects and pushed any interest rate hike further out until at least mid-2020. Recent Euro-Zone data has been mixed ahead of this meeting and is not as weak as prints from the start of the year, but Tuesdays IMF growth downgrades – within the single-block and globally – will temper any positive sentiment. No further updates are expected on the shape of the latest round of TLTROs or the recently discussed ECB bank tiering, but this could change if Draghi feels that the EZ growth slowdown is becoming entrenched.

ECB行长德拉吉将在今天再次保持货币政策不变，但他在随后的新闻发布会上的评论需要密切关注。在上次会议上，德拉吉总统降低了欧盟的增长前景，并推动任何加息进一步推动至2020年中期。最近的欧元区数据在本次会议之前一直在涨跌互现，并不像今年年初那样疲弱，但周二国际货币基金组织的增长降级 - 在单一区块和全球范围内 - 将缓和任何积极的情绪。没有进一步的更新，预计在新一轮TLTROs或最近讨论欧洲央行的银行分层的形状，但如果德拉基认为的EZ增长放缓变得根深蒂固，这可能改变。

We will be covering the ECB Meeting Live from 12:30 BST/07:30 EST.

我们将在美国东部时间12点30分/东部时间早上12点30分报道欧洲央行现场会议。

Later in the session the latest FOMC minutes are expected to show that the Fed remains data dependent and will wait patiently before moving interest rates, either up or down. The balance sheet reduction program may be discussed further including duration and the ratio of mortgage-backed securities to US Treasuries on the balance sheet.

会议后期最新的联邦公开市场委员会会议纪要预计将显示美联储仍然是数据依赖并会在提高利率之前耐心等待，无论是向上还是向下。可以进一步讨论资产负债表减少计划，包括资产负债表上的抵押贷款支持证券与美国国债的持续时间和比率。

Around the same time as the FOMC minutes, the EU may well outline the offer of a new Brexit extension to the UK with expectations currently between 9 and 12 months. The extension is expected to include a break clause that would allow the UK to leave earlier if it ratifies the Withdrawal Agreement.

与FOMC会议纪要大致同时，欧盟可能会很好地概述英国退欧对英国的延期，目前预期为9至12个月。预计延期将包括一个中断条款，允许英国在批准撤回协议时提前离开。

Euro volatility remains low and will need an unexpected announcement or update to break it out of its recent torpor.

欧元波动性仍然很低，需要意外公告或更新打破它最近的麻木。

Weekly Euro Volatility.

每周欧元波动。

EURUSD remains rangebound although the longer-term trend still points to lower prices. The recent higher low at 1.1182, made on April 2, has applied a brake to the gradual sell-off but price action still suggests a re-test of this level. To the upside, 1.1300 acts as initial resistance before the 200-day moving average comes into play at 1.1424.

尽管欧元兑美元仍在区间范围内长期趋势仍然指向较低的价格。近期4月2日的低点1.1182已经对逐步抛售产生了制动作用，但价格走势仍暗示重新测试该水平。向上， 1.1300作为200天移动平均线在1.1424之前的初始阻力。

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EURUSD Daily Price Chart (August 2018 – April 10, 2019)

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Retail traders are 63.9% net-long EURUSD according to the latest IG Client Sentiment Data, a bearish contrarian indicator. However recent daily and weekly positional changes suggest that EURUSD may soon reverse higher despite traders being net-long.

根据最新的IG客户情绪数据（看跌逆势指标），零售交易商的净多头欧元兑美元为63.9％。但最近的每日和每周位置变化表明欧元兑美元可能很快逆转走高r尽管交易者是净多头。